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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%. The position ETF--iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, decreased by 179.98 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position is 14,414.25 tons.

The rate of return of the money fund has reached a record low. Since December, the rate of return of the money fund has continued to decline. The annualized rate of return of Tianhong Yubao Money Fund, the largest, fell below 1.27% on the 7th, hitting a record low. According to industry insiders, the recently released "Self-discipline Initiative on Optimizing the Self-discipline Management of Non-bank Interbank Deposit Interest Rate" has a great impact on the Monetary Fund, and the superimposed interest rate is at a low level, and the yield of the Monetary Fund may continue to decline. As the income decreases, funds will look for new directions for allocation. Wang Menghan, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, said that compared with similar products, the advantages of money funds are tax exemption, liquidity and stable net value. Among them, for institutional customers, there are still tax exemption and liquidity demands, so there is little demand for reducing the holdings of money funds. However, for non-institutional investors, because the stability of the net value of the money fund will be obviously weakened, there is a demand to reduce the holdings of the money fund. (SSE)The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) said that a delegation, including its leaders, arrived in Cairo on Wednesday to discuss the negotiation of the hostage-for-prisoner agreement.Six members of the ruling party of South Korean President Yin Xiyue supported the impeachment of the president.

Market participants: In 2025, the steel industry may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. At the 2025 China steel market prospect and the annual meeting of "My Steel", whether the profit space of steel enterprises can be enlarged in 2025, whether the supply-side capacity will be withdrawn in an orderly manner, and what factors should be relied on for the long-term development of enterprises have become the minds of many participants. The industry believes that the survival pressure of steel enterprises may be eased in 2025. The upstream supply of iron ore, coke and coking coal will reduce their prices, and the cost of steel enterprises will fall. The market may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. Market participants said that although steel prices are still expected to decline in 2025, the profit margin of steel enterprises may increase. (SSE)The latest 24-hour situation tracking of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (December 12) The conflict situation: 1. The French President considers deploying a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine. 2. Uzbekistan claims that the city of Zaporoge was attacked by Russian troops, resulting in 6 deaths and 22 injuries. The Ukrainian military said it attacked the oil depot in the Bryansk region of Russia. 4. Russian Ministry of Defence: Russian air defense forces destroyed 14 Ukrainian drones overnight. 5. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: On December 10th, Ukraine attacked the car in which the experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency were riding, and the attack occurred near the nuclear power plant controlled by Ukraine. 6. Russian media: The Russian side said that it was attacked by six ATACMS missiles today. Russia said it would respond to today's ATACMS missile attack. 7. Governor of Belgorod, Russia: Ukrainian troops fired more than 30 shells in Belgorod within 24 hours, causing no casualties or property losses. 8. US officials: Russia may launch another experimental "Oreshnik" missile to Ukraine in the next few days. The United States focuses on providing Ukraine with an air defense system to defend against Russian missiles and drones. Others: 1. Polish Prime Minister Tusk: He will visit Ukraine in early 2025. 2. Hungarian Prime Minister: Zelensky categorically rejected the ceasefire on December 25th. 3. German Chancellor Scholz: The Ukrainian energy sector needs a lot of private investment. 4. Sources: NATO may raise its expenditure target to as high as 3% of GDP. 5. Diplomat: The EU envoy failed to reach an agreement on the 15th round of sanctions against Russia. 6. Ukrainian Finance Minister: Ukraine can resist at least until the middle of next year without American assistance. 7. US Treasury Secretary Yellen: US sanctions against Russia "continue to tighten" and have tried to curb Russian income through innovative ways. 8. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The relationship with the United States is in jeopardy, calling on Russian citizens not to travel to the United States. Russia has asked the United States to agree to appoint a new ambassador to the United States. 9. Two sources: Ukrainian President Zelensky used his first meeting with Donald Trump since the US presidential election to show that Ukraine needs security guarantees in any negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.Morgan Stanley upgraded Dahua's rating to parity, with a target price of RMB in 19 yuan. Andy Meng, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, had a low rating. The target price is 19 yuan RMB, which is up by 12%.